India’s Rice Production Likely To Decline 6% This Kharif Season; Will It Impact Prices?

Rice Prices To Be Impacted? India’s rice production is likely to decline 6 per cent to 104.99 million tonnes in the kharif season this year, compared with 111.76 million tonnes in the year-ago period. It is due to lower sowing of paddy amid poor rains in key producing states, especially Jharkhand.

Jharkhand witnessed a lower paddy coverage this year by 9.37 lakh hectares, followed by Madhya Pradesh (6.32 lakh hectares), West Bengal (3.65 lakh hectares), Uttar Pradesh (2.48 lakh hectares) and Bihar (1.97 lakh hectares) on account of poor rainfall. Sowing in the kharif season begins with the onset of the southwest monsoon from June and harvesting from October onwards. Rice is mainly grown in the kharif season, which contributes 85 per cent of the total rice production. Remaining 15 per cent is grown in the rabi (winter) season.

The likely fall in rice output is estimated to bring down the country’s total foodgrain production to 149.92 million tonnes in the 2022-23 kharif season as against 156.04 million tonnes in the 2021-22 kharif season. Experts said these are initial estimates and the revival in rainfall in some states is likely to narrow down the difference in the paddy coverage and production scenario.

Likely Impact On Rice Prices

India is the world’s second-largest rice producer after China and commands a 40 per cent global market share. The prices of rice recently rose, on high demand and lower cultivation. The rice prices jumped about 4 per cent after the Bangladesh government announced the reduction of duty on the import of rice. The neighbouring nation is buying rice from India as well as procure some quantities from Vietnam.

The likely decline in the rice production might have an impact on the rice prices amid high international demand. Recently, wheat prices also saw a jump due to higher international demand. Russia and Ukraine are the major exporters of wheat accounting for about a fourth of the global wheat trade. The conflict between them led to the global wheat supply chain disruptions, increasing the demand for Indian wheat.

Other Crop Acreages

Besides rice, foodgrains basket grown in the kharif season comprise of coarse grains and pulses. Pulses production has been pegged at last year’s level of 8.37 million tonnes in this kharif season with slight decline in output of tur and urad.

Coarse cereals output is projected to be slightly higher at 36.56 million tonnes in this kharif season as against 35.91 million tonnes in the year-ago period. Maize output is pegged at a record 23.10 million tonnes as against 22.63 million tonnes in the said period.

In non-foodgrain category, production of oilseeds is projected to be 23.57 million tonnes in this kharif season as against 23.88 million tonnes in the year-ago period. Soyabean production is pegged lower at 12.89 million tonnes as against 12.99 million tonnes in the said period.

In case of cash crops, the ministry has projected cotton output higher at 34.19 million bales of (170 kg each) in 2022-23 crop year as against 31.20 million bales last year. Sugarcane production is pegged at a record 465.05 million tonnes as against 431.8 million tonnes in the said period.

Jute/mesta output is projected to be lower at 10.09 million bales of (180 kg each) during the current crop year as against 10.31 million bales last year. The ministry releases four advance estimates before the final one at different stages of the crop condition and harvesting.

(With Inputs From PTI)

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